September 01, 2024 | Read Online
Hello Everyone
At the outset, I would like to personally thank all of you for the love and readership accorded to our newsletter.
Its been 2.5 years since we embarked on this journey as a medium to communicate our views about the markets, share interesting reads, deep dive on research topics, answer reader questions, and share our social media stories.
We now are a family of > 75k subscribers out of which 50k are regular readers which makes us overwhelmed and feel more responsible towards bettering our output week on week.
With this purpose, we now have a fresh new design with new sections that include a section on Perspectives that we will use for sharing book reviews, reads, interesting / useful websites, and tools from time to time.
Another section we have added is where we will showcase interesting, exclusive products that we feel are well-positioned with the markets texture at that point in time. Today we share 2 ideas on the unlisted space viz. Swiggy and NSE. You can visit our products page on GoalTeller for more products and a brand new tool that we have designed that helps you compare mutual funds like never before on the basis of volatility, consistency, and rolling returns.
Thanks once again and hope you would like this new version of our newsletter.
Small Saving Schemes -
Sukanya Samriddhi Scheme sees the highest growth
Nifty stayed at all time highs as sector rotation kept the index supported viz. Pharma, Telecom and IT.
Our 2024 target of the index (24k-26k) is achieved and the index could continue its move towards 26,000 over the next few weeks aided by continued sector rotation with other beaten down sectors coming into play.
The broad based nature of movement seems to have ebbed for now.
With earnings being a tad below expectations, major worries on US elections, unabated global tensions (Which will increase if Trump loses) make markets seem stretched now. We believe any adverse US election outcome in November (read as Trump losing) could provide a big negative in the short term for global markets and could also be a big negative for the US dollar.
We would advise investors to a) Increase their STP durations, b) Continue SIP’s and maybe increase this, c) Realign equities to your asset allocation and exit any equities that are earmarked for goals < 12 months and maybe even for goals < 3 years
We append highlights of the book “ The Bull by Maggie Mahar”. A book highly recommended by Warren Buffet himself and very vividly describes the story of the US markets from 1982 – 2004, a journey which saw the Dow go up multi fold only to be met by the tech crash.
A book that if read well will give investors a great experience of how bubbles are formed and burst and how rational voices are dubbed as naïve, how at times being early calling a market peak can be detrimental to your career and business. A trend that is currently seen in the Indian context. I have attached my personal highlights here that I mark when I read books ( I hope you will like and learn from this as I have done)
Q. With Pharma and IT stocks doing well recently, shall I move my portfolio to get inclined towards these sectors?
Answer: Hi Reader, thanks for a very pertinent question. The IT and pharma indices are the best performers of the last 1 month while the pharma index itself is the best performer of the past 6 months as well.
From a sector perspective, we did mention in our newsletter about our preference for both these spaces since the past few months. However we had and also currently believe that IT is at best a value pop play that was waiting to get corrected. We don’t believe IT (software services) would generate high double digit returns and isn’t a structural buy. However pharma on the other hand, we believe still has some room to go and can be added as a SIP/ on dips and an allocation of 5 % -7.5% of ones portfolio can be built here. Do keep in mind these sectors can stay in slumber for long periods of time and hence are purely a hedge and long term bets.
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