August 31, 2025
Some Interesting Charts
A very polarised market
The actual average GDP per capita:
• 2 big contrarian news flows this week - a) The INR has fallen to all-time lows at below 88 levels as the tariffs kick in, and b) India's GDP grew 7.8% in Q1 Vs expectations of 6.5%.
• Though certain pockets are bullish due to the GDP not in the very short term, we feel markets could slide further both technically and due to some impact of the tariffs.
• 22.5k- 23k Nifty seems like a worst-case bottom as of now.
• In the short term, the impact of these tariffs would surely be felt over the next quarters unless immediately addressed in certain sectors and pockets of the economy.
• All steps that are being taken by the government would surely help mitigate a lot of these, but will be seen only later, potentially next calendar/financial year, however, markets start discounting things in advance and hence we believe that markets should form a bottom over the next few weeks.
• Hence, as above, investors can start nibbling below 24k Nifty levels and start taking much bigger bites/chunks below 23.5k and maybe get fully invested below 23k.
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