Wishing you all a Happy 2025!
This edition shares our Annual Year Book, covering a summary of 2024, expectations for this year, top reads, our own performance, and strategies for markets, sectors, and spaces to consider or avoid.
Summarising 2024
Global indices continued strong, with the Nifty up around 10%, Nifty 500 at about 14%, and mid and small cap indices at around 24%.
The Nasdaq performed well, supported by AI themes, Tesla, and quantum computing, rising by 35%. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones was up by 14%, and China by a modest 9%.
Japanese interest rates turned positive for the first time in 17 years, altering global trade dynamics.
AI was the biggest buzzword in 2024, with quantum computing likely to dominate in 2025.
India’s IPO frenzy hit all-time highs, especially in the SME segment.
Microfinance stocks struggled due to rising NPAs, while large-cap names like Asian Paints, Nestle, and Reliance also faced pressure. In contrast, tech, pharma, and energy sectors did well, along with certain new-age stocks like Zomato (Paytm also rebounded from lows).
Alternate currencies stood out: Gold rose around 24%, while Crypto (Bitcoin) surged by 129%.
Concerns over Trump’s trade policies led to the INR depreciating toward 86 levels.
Outlook 2025
A 25% exit call is given on the Nasdaq (for holdings >2 years), as many positives seem priced in. This position delivered a ~100% return over 2 years, so partial profit-taking seems appropriate.
The next few months warrant caution as the new US presidency unfolds.
AI and Big Tech appear somewhat overextended and may pause/correct, although the long-term story remains intact.
The target of 30k on the Nifty remains, potentially achievable over the next 12–15 months.
Global geopolitical tensions could ease, possibly boosting markets. While Trump’s rhetoric can be erratic, his actions tend to be more measured, so trade war concerns may not be as severe as feared.
Gold seems positioned to cross the 1 lac mark in the next 12–15 months. Despite select small and mid caps continuing to do well, large caps remain attractive on a risk-adjusted basis.
Indian tech companies now appear expensive relative to their growth. While a major decline isn’t expected, the strong upswing from last year may be behind us.
Our Calls Over the Past Few Years
Hits
Correctly predicted 20k on the Nifty in Oct 2022 (achieved within the target timeframe).
Forecasted a best-case scenario of 26k on the Nifty for 2024, which was again on point.
Recommended Gold since 42,000 levels, which proved successful.
Parag Parikh (Mutual Fund) performed well, especially with low volatility (<14% vs. >16–18% for peers).
The Nasdaq and Big Tech calls were major wins in 2023 and 2024.
Tech, pharma, and the Momentum factor also played out successfully in 2024.
Misses
Expected large caps to outperform in 2024, which did not happen as envisioned.
Anticipated corrections in mid and small caps, which did not unfold as hoped.
GoalTeller’s Journey in 2024
Assets under advice crossed INR 3,500 Cr.
Significant features introduced: Wealth Shield, Investment Holding analytics (e.g., Avg Nifty buy levels), unrealized Capital Gains breakdown (long/short term), fund scores, online Vault, and more.
Committed to further innovation in 2025 with tools that enhance review, tracking, and investment decisions.
How to Play the Markets in 2025
(Valid for the next 3 months, i.e., until March 2025)
Equities
Nifty above 25.5k
Book gains and rebalance portfolios to normal equity levels.Nifty between 24.5k – 25.5k
Hold.Nifty between 23k – 24.5k
Keep nibbling and staggering investments; this is ideal for time-based corrections.Nifty below 23k
Invest lump-sum amounts (10% of available cash at every 5% dip).
Some Funds We Like!
Parag Parikh Flexi Cap Fund
ICICI Balanced Advantage Fund
Kotak Eq Savings
JM Flexi Cap
HDFC Nifty 500 Multi Cap
Zerodha Large and Mid-Cap Index 250 Fund
Kotak Income Plus Arbitrage FOF
Gold
Continue to hold; consider buying/adding above 75. Note that Gold Funds/ETF taxation becomes more favorable post-April 1, 2025. Until then, SGBs may still be the best option despite higher premiums and low liquidity.
Crypto
If needed, consider asset classes that benefit from crypto gains (e.g., investing in global crypto exchanges via LRS). Any direct crypto purchase should be treated as high risk, high return.
Fixed Income
Yields may slide a bit due to low growth, but not as drastically as some predict. The 10-year Govt Bond may dip to ~6.25%.
Short–Medium Term Debt Funds might not be ideal for high-tax-bracket individuals due to marginal tax rates. Consider Debt Fund FOFs that invest in arbitrage, providing LTCG tax if held >2 years.
Arbitrage Funds remain a good alternative from a post-tax perspective.
For corporate bonds, thorough due diligence is essential. Quality NBFCs still offer decent risk-adjusted returns.
Some Interesting Reads Through 2024
Roger Federer and Stock Markets
Hermes Heir Alleges USD 13 Billion Vanished
India Luxury Car Sales Could Hit 50k in 2024
Goldman Sachs Affluent India Report
Disclosure:
Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully beforeinvesting. Registration granted by SEBI,membership of BASL and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide anyassurance of returns to investors
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