GoalTeller

November 24, 2024

Earnings Disappointment – A Tale of two charts

Shall we see it optically or ex-oil/metals (which were down due to commodity prices decline) in which case it’s not that bad.

However there is no denying that there is a slowdown in earnings growth this quarter – will be interesting to see how the Dec quarter results are especially after a visibly great festive month in October.

With the exit poll predicting an NDA win, markets went up on Friday and are expected to move higher tomorrow on the back of the massive NDA win.
Any escalation of the Ukraine – Russia war will be important to see.
Nifty continues to have good support around the 23,000 Nifty levels and as mentioned earlier if we are able to avoid falling below 22,500 – 23,000 levels markets should be able to avoid the panic trap (As of now these levels could break only in case of a major global geopolitical escalation).
Despite the buoyancy of the results, we remain committed to our earlier view of staggered deployment up to 25k Nifty levels post which we will re-assess.
Barring any major negative over the next 12 months, a Nifty level of 30,000 and Sensex at 1 lac continues to be achievable (A big zone though of 20,000 in case of major negatives and 30k if things are fine) – As an equity investor one should be able to create a portfolio that can exploit both such situations. Though things will be very volatile and there could be new leaders that drive this next surge as with Trump’s policies of protectionism, global wars and tech developments new leaders and losers will continue to be unearthed every now and then.
Bitcoin is close to touching $1,00,000 – (despite this, would stay away from this asset class).
Lastly SEBI has cracked down on 3 unregulated bond platforms - (Every investor should be very discerning while investing in bonds – as I speak below on the lines of the Mint Summit on why equities are actually less risky than bonds – though we at GoalTeller continue to recommend bonds, however we are as always very discerning and urge users to be as well – several online bond platforms sell bonds in an unfettered manner which is dangerous).

My thoughts on the sidelines of the Mint Money Festival where I spoke about what should be an individual’s FIRE number, my own number, and how I perceive risk (especially why equities are less riskier than bonds)