November 10, 2024 | Read Online
(Chegg Inc – A big fall from its tops led by Chat GPT and technological advancements that the co couldn’t avoid/keep up with) Similar with Paytm.
When investing in his tech-driven cos, be cognizant of these factors – today’s winners could easily turn out to be tomorrow’s duds
As the US markets went up on a Trump victory, Indian markets moved lower on bad earnings and uncertainty on the new world order/US presidency.
Short-term concerns continue to be poor earnings and unchartered territory from the new US presidency.
In the medium term we remain positive due to a) Earnings should improve as the festive nos were quite upbeat, b) Domestic Liquidity as usual continues to be very strong, c) Global tensions should ease.
Two critical levels of the markets are 23,800 of the Nifty and then 22,500/23,000 that both will act as major support levels. Our worry is if for any reason markets crack levels of 22,500/22250 levels worst case, a massive domino effect can take place.
The next few weeks (November) continue to have many critical events (Impact of F&O rules i.e. minimum contract size of 15 lacs and further clarity on the new US presidency).
We believe that the 22,500 levels should hold even in worst-case situations as domestic liquidity is strong enough to support any dips/panic around those levels.
Our Yearbook has mentioned levels to deploy (viz. Deploy staggered over next few weeks, and get fully deployed below 23,000 levels) We don’t recommend to stay out of equities, however at this moment we are around the lower end of the equities range.
While India sees the highest outflows, Japan has seen the max inflowsever at this moment we are around the lower end of the equities range.
Goldman Sachs on the Risks of the Trump Rally: Risks to Trump rally by Goldman Sachs
Market Comparisons: 1999 Vs 2024
NSE’s Unlisted Market Value – An intriguing surge in NSE's unlisted markets, although we believe the true levels are closer to 7,500. NSE touches around 9000 in the Unlisted markets (Though this is an aberration and we believe levels are closer to 7,500)