September 14, 2025
Allocation to stocks of total net worth in US Households
The bubble might get bigger, but the burst will be very very hard
Chart 2 - 5 year trailing returns are disconnected from long-term averages
• Markets moved higher and kind of broke a narrow zone after a long period on prospects of a US trade deal and softening stance by the US president.
• Tech stocks did well on the back of a buyback by Infosys and the surge in Oracle globally, which rubbed off on its Indian counterpart.
• Oracle Corp jumped 25% last week on big orders on cloud infrastructure backed by AI - again a reminder that the next few years will have pockets of big winners and some big poll losers as well.
• The markets have now started discounting the prospects of a softer or lower US tariff and an eventual trade deal - this should be the big trigger which could either lead the market to all-time highs or, conversely, back to sub 24,500 levels.
• Defence stocks did very well - look out for the chart below that shows how prominent international funds are making India a prominent part of defence allocations.
• As an investment strategy - if your view is short term, kindly stay away as both valuations and possibility of negative triggers persist - if your view and holding power is long term and can stomach a 20%-25% downside in your portfolio - DO NOT TRY AND TIME THE MARKET AS THE LONG TERM OPPORTUNITY CONTINUES TO BE STRONG AND BULLISH
Learn more: CGAP
It’s a $128 billion fund
Defence ETF global allocations
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