September 21, 2025
FII Ownership of Indian Equities
At Decadal Lows - Still waiting for the double engine flow - will happen sooner or later, which would lead to the next peak
• The 100,000 USD fee on the H-1B visa is the big story of the week - Some clarification, apparently, that this is a one-time payment and only for new applicants and not existing ones.
• The impact of this will surely be massive - the biggest would be of incremental headcount flow to US which will get almost stopped/curbed - which sectors will see a glut and which will see a surge in demand remains to be seen (This could spur real estate demand potentially and also lead to lower wage costs for companies - though unemployment could rise).
• Several global funds have targets of 2x-3x of Gold even from current prices which, considering the current scenario, seems likely (The current move of the US of the H-1B Visa clearly signifies its inward-looking approach which will lead to further de-dollarisation)
• Indian Equities - very difficult to call the short-term move due to the multiplicity of triggers - would recommend once again not to take CASH CALLS, NO Equities <3 years of time horizon, > 3-year money can be deployed either in a 3m STP or in a mix of diversified and balanced funds.
• The PM has a briefing to the nation at 5 pm today, and maybe more measures expected to tide this situation over (though things like GST, tax cuts etc, will slowly come into play and be visible in the economy from next year onwards).
• On SIF's viz. The Quant SIF that is being launched - it’s a double edged sword and
a) Only for high risk investors,
b) Pls understand IT IS NOT A FIXED return scheme as much as the fund/manager might like or want and there could be months the fund goes negative despite a lesser net long position,
c) Invest with a > 1-2 year horizon and with the ability to see negative months as well.
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