February 23, 2025
Berkshire Hathaway Cash Holding as a % of total assets is now at 27% - the Highest ever
• With Trump and Musk, every week is new – while some worries abate new ones come into play – This week it’s the big worry about whether the fabled “Fort Knox” does hold the Gold that its balance shows (An audit has been demanded).
• Investors and Banks are rushing Gold out of Bank of England with worries on Trump imposing import duties on Gold.
• Gold touches all-time highs and a 100,000 seems imminent here, however unlike a lot of quarters we are 1) A little cautious now (not bearish), 2) We will keep re-assessing our views – Ukraine/Russia war abatement could provide some correction in the yellow metal.
• Indian stocks were flat while lot of action In certain stocks and sectors continued with MFI’s continuing to decline and consumption moving higher. We strongly believe for the next 12-15 months 2 very safe/attractive from a risk-reward perspective is themes on consumption and rural. There is some overlap here and this is one space that would do well on account of the govt push on tax rebates, rate cuts and finally low direct impact of global events.
• The US markets crashed on Friday on bad economic data. We continue to believe that the US markets need some correction sooner or later and unfortunately whenever that happens in the short term the impact on India would be felt.
• India PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) had a sharp rebound in Feb.
• Nifty is poised very crucially at 22,800 levels which has acted as good support the last few weeks – a break could precipitate an immediate fall of 4-5% (Typically when levels start getting pushed like this, sooner or later it gives way).
• Chinese markets have performed exceedingly well over the past few weeks.
• We believe strongly and reiterate that over the next six months, any opportunity (between 23k – 21k Nifty) could be a great one to buy stocks from a 3 – 5 year perspective. There are multiple short-term headwinds which could move the markets lower while medium and long-term tailwinds remain.
2 important learnings here – Criticality of Stop Losses and Why we shouldn’t let good money chase bad money/investments
I shall be hosting a X space on Wed/Thu eve with Neil Borate on the current state of markets, tax changes and an engaging QA session as usual (Stay Tuned) ~ VIVEK BANKA
• Berkshire Hathaway’s latest newsletter
• 12 points from Berkshire Hathaway’s newsletter
• Fort Knox and Trump and Musk’s worry
• 42 billion worth of IPO stocks’ lock-in gets over
• 22k cr. of undisclosed foreign assets in India
• Cities with the highest MF AUM in India
• Buy China and Sell India trade gains prominence with delayed tariffs on China
Disclosure:
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