GoalTeller

January 12, 2025 | Read Online

Nifty 50: At super crucial levels

The next few days/weeks are crucial – especially for determining the direction for the next 3-6 months.

23,000 levels give and take is crucial as can be seen below - For the first six months of 2024 Nifty had a hard time crossing this and hence has now become a crucial support level – Any decisive fall below this could open up the floodgates to much lower levels.

We have highlighted this many times over the last few weeks and even asked individuals to be cautious – however, any break should be used to buy with a 3-year view that could generate very good returns.

• Very occasionally in the past 12-36 months have we seen small and mid-caps battered like the way we have seen last week (Again we have been saying that this low volatility phase that we are used to is possibly behind us).

• As mentioned above, the current levels are very crucial and strategies should be to accumulate below those levels aggressive, accumulate conservatively between 23 – 24.5k and stop accumulating above that.

• The next big trigger would be the budget with varied expectations against personal tax rate cuts and the direct tax code.

• Industrial Output was better than expected showing first signs of some manufacturing recovery.

• The USD slipped below 86 for the first time and we believe the initial few weeks of the Trump Presidency will determine whether the currency moves closer to 90 or stabilises and improves from here

• We have a very interesting product below and some even better reads ( BAATMAN stocks, Howard Marks predicts a bubble and more).

Earn 16%-20% returns on a product that has the government as the counterparty. We generally do not recommend very long tenor investments but this is something that we feel stands out and some prima facie reasons for our recommendations

Why we are recommending

• Experienced fund management team in this very niche area.
• High gross returns (18%-22%) with regular cash flows (8%-10%).
• Strong counterparty as the government of India.
• Participation of several high-end family offices and UHNI’s.