June 22, 2025 | Read Online
As inflation reduces structurally, will equity returns also suffer, and expectations become more moderate ??? - Yes, we always believe that incrementally a 12% return in equity is par for the course and is good - what will be a concern is the post-tax non-equity return, which could keep flows into equity high
• Markets continue to oscillate in the current band with Friday's rise getting it more towards the higher end - A big move away from 25300 odd on the upside and 24750 on the downside will provide short-term direction.
• We remain a tad cautious at these levels, as like past weeks. With the US bombing Iran, and if other countries join in, in retaliation, then things could go bad.
• Irrespective of how bad the markets can go down, it'll be foolhardy to take big cash calls, which we always recommend against (unless the cash is for financial goals < 3 years).
• Our big worry is not the war but a potential change in the India / US equation as Pakistan becomes a US proxy due to the Iran war - these repercussions on trade deals could be more long-term, though it’ll remain limited to export and specific sectors.
• HDB Financial's IPO is at a steep discount to the grey markets - NSE investors seem worried, but a) We don’t see a similar situation, and b) We also don't believe in the very escalated valuations currently.
• Please be careful of whom you buy unlisted securities, especially ones like NSE where the delivery takes time - multiple reports of brokers fleeing with the money without the stocks being transferred.
• The coming week has a spate of IPO's and typically such frenzied events point to an intermediate top (which maybe could happen post some more rise this week if geopolitical issues get sorted).
My views on Money Control on how to play Gold with all the global tensions
